There are fancy algorithms, complex charts, and technical indicators out there promising to turn you into a crypto kingpin. Likely, most of them are just about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Today, I’m gonna share a simple Bitcoin trading strategy. It’s plenty flawed, but it’s worked for me since Bitcoin was trading at $15.
2 simple rules:
- Mainstream Media Goes Weeping Willow? Buy! – When the news is full of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) articles about Bitcoin being dead, that’s my cue. It’s time to buy. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) is your friend here. Don’t go all-in like a gambling degenerate. Spread your purchases out over time to ride out the volatility.
- Mainstream Media Goes Full Hype Machine? Sell! – The news is blaring headlines about Bitcoin being the greatest invention since sliced bread? The “to the moon” forecasts are flying thick and fast? Cash out, my friends. DCA out. Take some profits off the table. Because when everyone’s talking about it, that’s usually a sign it’s time to take a breather.
Assumptions
- I only trade what I can lose. I have lots of other more normal investments and I call this my yolo money. If I lose it, I won’t be too sad.
- I try not to be an emotional trader. I don’t trade based on how I feel. I make the ‘strategy’. Then execute with annoying adherence. Emotions are a great way to lose money
- I believe bitcoin will likely continue to be perceived as having value, much like a digital gold. Partly because it’s also got real use cases that won’t go away, e.g. nefarious ones
- Therefore, I believe that over some long run basis, it will keep going up. This results in 2 more rules:
- First, that I don’t short sell, I only buy. This allows me to make sure I’m staying on what I believe to be the long run secular trend.
- Second, if my trade doesn’t work out in the short run, I can just hold a really, really long time. Also aided by the fact this is yolo money
Caveat: this is not financial advice
This strategy is about as complex (and smart) as a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. What works for me likely won’t work for you. The hardest part is getting in when everyone is getting out. There’s something scary when all your friends and the news is pulling out and taking losses. After 10 years of doing this though I get excited when everyone is running away.
